Write measurable forecasts with dates, then schedule checkbacks. Include your confidence and the key evidence driving it. When reality arrives, compare prediction to outcome, analyze misses, and adjust heuristics. This humble loop compounds accuracy and tames narrative overfitting in surprising, satisfying ways.
Break large questions into back-of-the-envelope numbers, stating assumptions clearly and noting plausible ranges. Then audit assumptions: which, if wrong, would overturn your conclusion? This practice builds numeracy, reveals fragility, and directs research toward the few uncertainties that actually matter.
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